BUY
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Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE
Strong Q1; sales guidance too conservative, PT up Sales grew by 42% yoy to € 51.1m (eNuW: € 50.5m) on the back of higher prices (billings margin: 17.1%, up 4.1pp yoy) and a higher user base of 1.507m MAUs (+13% yoy). At user level, the monthly ARPU of Lottery increased by 25% to € 10.01 (eNuW: € 9.95), mainly due to the price increase, whereas ARPU of Games increased by 30% yoy to € 43.90 (eNuW: € 39.22) as user spending increased thanks to a higher games offering on the platform. EBITDA expanded sharply by 89% yoy to € 17.7m (eNuW: € 16.4m) due to operating leverage and lower marketing expenses of € 15.5m (eNuW: € 14.5m) compared to a high jackpot quarter. With 247k newly acquired users (eNuW: 125k), ZEAL nevertheless recorded the highest user intake in a quarter without peak jackpots. This should be a direct effect of past and ongoing brand awareness campaigns, but also due to recent tests of various new marketing channels. Dreamhouse Raffle is performing well. Compared to the first house raffle, the second draw saw 11% sequentially higher billings thanks to 11% sequentially higher MAUs and constant ABPU. For FY’25e, we expect at least three more draws (1x in Q2, Q3 and Q4). In the mid-term, ZEAL intends to increase the frequency up to 6x draws per year. The negative CFO of € -0.4m is solely based on a € 18m negative WC swing. This should be attributable to the discrepancy of customer pay-ins and jackpot payout flows (from the lottery operator via ZEAL to the customer and vice versa) through ZEAL’s balance sheet before and after the reporting date. Based on the strong Q1 results, we regard the sales guidance as too conservative now. Assuming a Q1 run rate, would yield € 206m FY’25 sales (vs. guidance of € 195-205m). Mind you, the run rate does not include a current strong jackpot environment in Q2 and also does not bake in further customer growth assumed for the rest of the year. Therefore, a sales guidance hike as early as Q2 results seems likely. On the other hand, higher sales usually come in with higher investments in marketing, tech and people, therefore an EBITDA guidance upgrade is less likely, but still in the cards. In summary, ZEAL remains fully on track to deliver another record year. Therefore, we reiterate our BUY recommendation and confirm ZEAL in our NuWays Alpha List with a new PT of € 63.00 (old: € 62.00), based on DCF. You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32506.pdf For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++
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