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Original-Research: LAIQON AG - von NuWays AG
Einstufung von NuWays AG zu LAIQON AG
Unternehmen: LAIQON AG
ISIN: DE000A12UP29
Anlass der Studie: Update
Empfehlung: Kaufen
seit: 26.04.2024
Kursziel: EUR 10.00
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
FY'24e to see improvements in top and bottom-line
Topic: LAIQON recently released mixed final Q4 results. Moreover, the outlook of performance fees for FY24e, poses LAIQON for another year of solid top-line growth and profitability improvements.
Final results in line: LAIQON released sales and EBITDA prelims in February
and both final figures did
not deviate. What's new is the net income, which came in slightlyworse than
expected at -12.8m (eNuW: € -10.8m) due to (1) € 7.3m negative one-off
effects (i.e., € 1.8m non-cash revaluations of limited partners in LAIC and
€ 5.5m interest expenses for purchase price allocations), lowering the
financial result to € -8.9m (eNuW: € -1.5m) and (2) better than expected
tax expense of € -7.1m (eNuW: € -2m).
AuM growth on track: At end of Q1'24, LAIQON reported € 6.4bn AuMs on group level, an increase of € 300m vs. Y/E'23 (€ 6.1bn). While the split between net capital inflow and valuation gains is indisclosed, we estimate c. € 150m to be performance related and the remaining € 150m to stem from capital inflows across the three segments. For Y/E'24e, we estimate AuMs to stand at € 7bn (+14% yoy), meaning that € 600m (€ 200m per quarter) are needed to reach our estimate.
Token placement started: In order to secure further outside growth financing and allow for an independent valuation of LAIQON's subgroup LAIC, the placement of the 'LAIC-Token 24' has been started in March. This should lead to proceeds of up to € 6.8m for LAIQON and should value the LAIC subgroup at € 65m, of which LAIQON should hold 80.8% post transaction.
Further improvements for FY'24e: Based on our 14% yoy AuM growth estimate, we expect sales to develop accordingly and increase to € 34.4m (+12% yoy). This should in return lead to an improved bottom-line thanks to the high fix-cost base of LAIQON's business model. We expect EBITDA to improve by 2.5m from € -4.7 in FY'23 to € -2.2m in FY'24e, implying an incremental EBITDA margin of 67%. Further upside could stem from performance fees (not included in our estimates) thanks to capital markets currently developing in LAIQON's favour. For FY'25e, we expect a positive EBITDA of € 3.4m thanks to first full-year effects of the Union Investment cooperation but also thanks to organic growth and thus operating leverage at the other segments.
In our view, the current valuation does not reflect LAIQON's potential. Thus, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with unchanged PT of € 10.00, based on DFC. - Analyst change -
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29529.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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