Buy
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Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to MHP Hotel AG
Strong FY24 no surprise after guidance hike, chg. Y24 sales increased by 18.2% yoy to € 161m (eNuW: € 160m), carried by both F&B (+17.1% to € 32.2m) as well as Logis (+18.6% to € 122.7m) sales. Overall, the strong increase in Logis sales is a result of improved occupancy (+5.6pp to 77.5%) as well as an increased ADR of € 217.75 (+6.5% yoy), which led to a strongly improved RevPar of € 168.73 (+14.8% yoy). While the wave of big events and concerts (UEFA Euro, Adele concerts, etc.) surely had its impact on occupancy, especially the continuously improving ADR underscores MHP’s price leadership. Mind you, that the company has by far the highest ADR’s of all hotel companies in Germany. On this basis, FY24 EBITDA substantially improved from € 1.1m in FY23 (€ 4m adj.) to € 10.4m in FY24, implying a margin of 6.4%. In our view, this was predominantly caused by positive operating leverage. Notably, the company’s own brand MOOONS (1 hotel in Vienna) achieved a strong result with an EBITDA margin of 11%. Against the backdrop of a good start into the year (see Theme part of our initiation), management again confirmed the FY guidance of € 180m sales (eNuW: € 185.3m) and € 15m EBITDA (eNuW: € 15.3m/ € 10.3m adj. EBITDA excl. key-money payments), implying a 15% yoy top-line increase and an 8.3% EBITDA margin. Expansion as potential catalyst. As stated before, CEO Frehse once again highlighted that the current market situation offers some appealing investment opportunities for MHP. As some peers have struggled recently, options for MHP to take over and reposition hotels in prominent locations should become available. Here, the company in yesterday’s corporate news reiterated that is currently observing several options to increase existing financing capabilities in order to be more flexible. Mind you, that we do not include any portfolio expansion in our model, thus leaving some upside to our estimates. Overall, the release fully underpins our conviction in the case as MHP again proved the financial resilience and strength of its positioning in the luxury hotel segment. We thus confirm BUY with an unchanged PT of € 3.00 based on DCF. You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32850.pdf For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++
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